LEILA FADEL, HOST:
For more on President Trump's latest threat, the U.S. strikes on Kharg Island and how Iran may respond, we have Vali Nasr on the line. He is an expert on Iran at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Good morning, and welcome back to the program.
VALI NASR: Good morning. Good to be with you.
FADEL: I want to start with President Trump saying on Truth Social this morning that a whole civilization will die tonight. When you read that, what was your first thought?
NASR: I mean, I thought that it is grotesque, obviously, to threaten a whole civilization, which is much larger than the Islamic republic or even the state of Iran itself. It does sound like hyperbole, but it also is being read very ominously, including potentiality of use of tactical nuclear weapons, for instance, on Iran, which is something that has been murmured for some time.
FADEL: Is that how it's being received in Iran?
NASR: I think the Iranians take all of these threats by President Trump very seriously because they know that he is - he does say outlandish things, and he does back away at the last minute. But at the same time, they have been at war with the United States twice now since June of 2025.
FADEL: Now, these strikes on Kharg Island, which is key to Iran's oil production, how do you expect Iran to respond to these attacks?
NASR: I think if the attacks proceed to some kind of an attempt to attack the island, a ground invasion on the island, I think the Iranians would retaliate by attacking U.S. troops, but also attacking targets across the Gulf. Kharg Island accounts for about 90% of Iran's oil export capacity. And the United States holding or even destroying that capacity during an invasion or after an invasion would then basically means that Iran's capability to export in the long term would be taken away. And Iran may very well attack oil infrastructure across the region. Going back to a dictum that they had said in the past that if Iran can't export oil, nobody else will in the Gulf, either.
FADEL: Given the U.S. stance with the president threatening total obliteration of Iran if it doesn't capitulate and open the Strait of Hormuz, and the stance of Iran, which has rejected and countered a U.S. proposal saying it wants a guarantee of a total end to the war, U.S. bases out of the region, among other things, is a deal possible?
NASR: I don't think they're close to a deal. President Trump thinks by escalating pressure and perhaps capturing Iranian territory or threatening massive bombing of Iran, it would force Iran to accept surrender. The Iranians have already paid a lot through this war. I don't think they want surrender. They want a deal. And a deal means guarantee that there's no more war, and there will be economic relief and economic reconstruction on Iran.
They could allow the Strait of Hormuz to be opened. They likely will do that, but they're not going to give up control over the Strait of Hormuz. After all, they are the most important border sitting on the Strait of Hormuz. And the other piece of this deal ultimately would be that Iran would hand over its highly enriched uranium. But again, that's contingent on what U.S. is willing to give Iran.
FADEL: Now, the president is saying Iran only has a few hours to decide here. I mean, if a deal doesn't - and we've seen, of course, this president change those deadlines in the past. If a deal doesn't happen, what do you expect to see come to pass tonight when this deadline expires from the U.S. president?
NASR: If the deadline - we get - we reach the deadline, and the president does not push it back either for legitimate reason that the deal is possible or just because he doesn't want to go through with it, then, you know, this war can go on and we're going to have other threats and deadlines there as well. But if the president actually escalates, I think this war can end into - end up to a next phase of much more violence and much more unpredictable escalation across the region. So, you know, we are sitting at a great moment of danger.
FADEL: Vali Nasr is an Iran expert at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Thank you for your time.
NASR: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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