SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
An extraordinary collection of world leaders will gather in China next week for a series of events that could signal shifting alliances. The leaders of China, India, Russia and North Korea will all be there during a time of global tensions over the war in Ukraine, the Middle East and U.S. tariffs.
Satu Limaye is vice president of the East-West Center, joins us now. Thanks so much for being with us.
SATU LIMAYE: Thank you so much for having me.
SIMON: India's prime minister, Modi, is going to attend the security summit that begins tomorrow. It is his first visit to China in seven years. What are the implications?
LIMAYE: Well, the implications are yet to be seen, but it's a remarkable time. As you know, there have been incredible tensions in U.S.-India relations over the last couple of weeks, certainly. I just returned from India last night, and the mood on the ground is - you know, is very worried about the U.S.-India relationship. Then the Alaska meeting between President Trump and Mr. Putin, President Putin, so the endgame on Ukraine. We're pending a U.S.-China engagement on tariffs, trade talks and other issues. The president has signaled that he would go to China, hopefully, at some point this year. And then, of course, during the visit of South Korea's leader to Washington, President Trump again mentioned, you know, the possibility of meeting with North Korea's leader. So you've got all of this amidst this incredibly uncertain and intense international relations period.
SIMON: Well, what are the concerns of Indian leaders? That they're being left out?
LIMAYE: I think they are stunned at the incoming - the U.S. administration's approach on tariffs. First, their tariff levels are a 25% baseline, which is, you know, basically higher than almost any Southeast Asian country, certainly higher than a number of other countries, including, to their, yeah, great disappointment in India, Pakistan. Then, on top of that, 25% for Russia crude oil purchases, which they feel are particularly unfair, given that China purchases as much or more crude oil than India. Other countries are getting commodities from Russia. There's been reports, news reports, of even American oil companies potentially reengaging Russia on energy. So they feel very hard done by.
And then, of course, hovering all over this is the crisis between India and Pakistan and the Trump administration's view that they sorted that issue and helped bring peace. And there are allegations that neither Prime Minister Modi or President Trump have spoken despite repeated efforts. It's unclear whether - what exactly the facts are. But certainly, all of this is swirling around and creating a sense that the U.S.-India relationship, which showed so much process across number of administrations, is now in real trouble. And there are some heavy headwinds ahead.
SIMON: Let me ask you - Wednesday, huge military parade is planned in Beijing to mark the 80th anniversary of Japan's formal surrender during World War II. And among those expected to attend is Vladimir Putin; North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un. What should we read into the leaders of Russia and North Korea attending this display of Chinese military might?
LIMAYE: Well, here again, you have sort of a shadow international relations with these three authoritarian states coming together. As we all know, North Korea signed an agreement with Russia to assist with its war effort in Ukraine, and did so. China is obviously a major backer of North Korea on energy and other issues. And so to have the picture of a defeat of Japan, the end of the Pacific War there, with this huge military parade in China seeks, I think, to do the following things - make China look like it is leading, you know, a group of countries that is - are opposed to the United States, certainly cementing its role. India will not attend but will be there. So that's the kind of context we're looking at, is a very kind of alternative international relations to a U.S.-led era.
SIMON: And I'm afraid - in the 35 seconds we have left, what are the consequences of a closer alliance between China, Russia and North Korea?
LIMAYE: Well, I think it's problematic for the United States. Who knows what kinds of military hardware will be sold? What type of signaling might give North Korea room to run, etc? So we'll have to watch carefully, but I don't think, in and of itself, the military parade does anything. But it just suggests the kind of uncertainty, intensity and direction of a very fractured and uncertain international environment.
SIMON: Satu Limaye is vice president of the East-West Center. Thank you so much for joining us.
LIMAYE: Thank you very much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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