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Meteorologists say winter forecast uncertain in Aleutian Islands

NOAA's winter temperature outlook shows equal chances of above-, below- or near-normal temperatures for the Aleutian Islands from December 2024 through February 2025.
NOAA
NOAA's winter temperature outlook shows equal chances of above-, below- or near-normal temperatures for the Aleutian Islands from December 2024 through February 2025.
NOAA's precipitation outlook map shows equal chances of above-, below- or near-normal temperatures for Alaska's Aleutian Islands from December 2024 through February 2025.
NOAA
NOAA's precipitation outlook map shows equal chances of above-, below- or near-normal temperatures for Alaska's Aleutian Islands from December 2024 through February 2025.

A weak La Niña system is predicted this winter, meaning meteorologists can't forecast whether the Aleutian Islands will experience higher or lower than normal temperatures and precipitation this season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center announced Oct. 17 that there are equal chances of below, near or above-average temperatures and precipitation throughout the region.

Meteorologist Aviva Braun with the National Weather Service (NWS) in Anchorage said since La Niña is predicted to be weak this year, conditions could go either way.

"It takes only one good storm or extreme event in any given area to throw the region off the climatology track," Braun said.

NOAA's winter outlook maps show varying temperature patterns across Alaska, with warmer trends in the northern region and cooler in the south, while precipitation is expected to be above normal for most of the state except the Aleutian Islands.
Photo courtesy of Aviva Braun
NOAA's winter outlook maps show varying temperature and precipitation patterns across Alaska.

Typically, winter temperatures in the Aleutians are between 30 and 40 degrees. Braun attributes this to the region's maritime climate, which usually prevents extreme cold temperatures. While rain is the most common form of precipitation, she said the region normally sees about 80 inches of snow annually. However, Braun notes that this year's weak La Niña shows no clear signals as to how much snow the islands might receive.

For official forecasts from the NWS Anchorage office throughout the winter, go to weather.gov/afc.

Sofia was born and raised in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. She’s reported around the U.S. for local public radio stations, NPR and National Native News. Sofia has a Master of Arts in Environmental Science and Natural Resource Journalism from the University of Montana, a graduate certificate in Documentary Studies from the Salt Institute and a Bachelor of Arts in Studio Arts from the University of Colorado Boulder. In between her studies, Sofia was a ski bum in Telluride, Colorado for a few years.
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